|

Uniform Methodology of the Risk Analysis of Emergency Situations of Technogenic and Natural Character

Authors: Aleksandrov A.A., Larionov V.I., Sushchev S.P. Published: 08.02.2015
Published in issue: #1(58)/2015  
DOI: 10.18698/1812-3368-2015-1-113-131

 
Category: Informatics, Computer Engineering and Control | Chapter: System Analysis, Control and Information Processing  
Keywords: emergency, risk analysis, vulnerability, damage rule, destruction law, influence model, striking factor

The description of uniform methodical approaches to the estimation of possible damage and the estimation of risks for the person and technosphere objects in emergency situations of natural and technogenic character is given. The risk theory basic concepts are formulated. The authors revealed causal relationships of striking factors influence on object and its resistance to this influence. The methodical base for forecasting of emergency situations consequences is offered and justified. Influence of various factors on probable destruction of risk elements and people injuries is analyzed. The article covers the dependences forming uniform scientific and methodical base from which it is possible to develop techniques of the risk analysis for concrete emergencies of technogenic and natural character.

References

[1] Kotlyarevskiy V.A., Zabegaev A.V., eds. Avarii i katastrofy. Preduprezhdenie i likvidatsiya posledstviy [Accidents and disasters. Prevention and liquidation of consequences]. Moscow, Assotsiatsiya stroitel’nykh vuzov Publ., 1998. 203 p. (vol. 4).

[2] Brushlinskiy N.N., Korol’chenko A.Ya., eds. Modelirovanie pozharov i vzryvov [Modeling of fires and explosions]. Moscow, Pozhnauka Publ., 2000. 492 p.

[3] Metodika otsenki posledstviy khimicheskikh avariy (metodika "toksi") [Estimation techniques of chemical accident consequence (procedure "toksi")]. Moscow, GUP "Nauchno-tekhnicheskiy tsentr po bezopasnosti v promyshlennosti Gosgortekhnadzora Rossii" Publ., 2000. 53 p.

[4] Makhutov N.A., eds. Technique of forecasting of earthquakes consequences. Sb. metodicheskikh dokumentov, primenyaemykh do pervichnoy otsenki riskov v oblasti pozharnoy bezopasnosti, grazhdanskoy oborony i zashchity naseleniya i territoriy ot chrezvychaynykh situatsiy [Collection of methodical documents, applied to the primary risk assessment in the field of fire safety, civil defense and protection of population and territories against emergency situations]. Moscow, Pollimag Publ., 2003, pp. 544-569 (in Russ.).

[5] Zonirovanie territoriy po zatopleniyu pri razrushenii gidrotekhnicheskikh sooruzheniy [Zoning of territories on flooding at the destruction hydraulic structures]. In book: Kotlyarevskiy V.A., Larionov V.I., Sushchev S.P. Entsiklopediya bezopasnosti: stroitel’stvo, promyshlennost’, ekologiya. V 3 t. T. 3. Seysmostoykost’ i teplozashchita sooruzheniy [Encyclopedia of safety: construction, industry, ecology. In 3 vol. Vol. 3. Seismic stability and thermal protection facilities]. Moscow, Nauka Publ., 2010. 633 p. (pp. 185-200).

[6] Metodiki otsenki posledstviy avariy na opasnykh proizvodstvennykh ob’ektakh. Sb. Dokumentov [Estimation techniques of accident consequence at hazardous production facilities. Collection of documents]. Moscow, GUP "Nauchno-tekhnicheskiy tsentr po bezopasnosti v promyshlennosti Gosgortekhnadzora Rossii" Publ. Ser. 27, iss. 2, 2001. 224 p.

[7] Larionov V.I. Teoreticheskie osnovy reagirovaniya na chrezvychaynye situatsii [Theoretical fundamentals of emergency response]. In book: Shoygu S.K., Sakov G.P., Tsivilev M.P., Polyakov I.S., eds. Operativnoe prognozirovanie inzhenernoy obstanovki v chrezvychaynykh situatsiyakh [Operational forecasting of engineering environment at emergencies]. Moscow, Papirus Publ., 1998. 166 p. (pp. 7-21).

[8] Venttsel’ E.S. Teoriya veroyatnostey [Probability theory]. Мoscow, Vysshaya Shkola Publ., 1999. 576 p.

[9] Aleksandrov A.A. Obespechenie bezopasnosti ekspluatatsii ob’ektov khraneniya uglevodorodnykh topliv [Ensuring of safe operation for storage objects of hydrocarbon fuels]. Moscow, Nauka Publ., 2007. 149 p.

[10] Komplekt kart OSR-97-A, V, S i drugie materialy dlya SNiP "Stroitel’stvo v seysmicheskikh rayonakh" [Card set General Seismic Zoning (GSZ) - 97 (A, B, C) and other materials for Construction Norms and Rules (CNR) "Construction in seismic regions"]. Moscow, OIFZ Publ., 1998. 33 p.

[11] Shoygu S.K., Puchkov V.A., Faleev M.I., Shaposhnikov S.V., eds. Atlas prirodnykh i tekhnogennykh opasnostey i riskov chrezvychaynykh situatsiy. Rossiyskaya Federatsiya [Atlas of natural and technogenic dangers risks and emergencies. RF]. Moscow, "Dizayn. Informatsiya. Kartografiya" Publ., 2010. 696 p.

[12] Kotlyarevskiy V.A., Larionov V.I., Sushchev S.P. Entsiklopediya bezopasnosti: stroitel’stvo, promyshlennost’, ekologiya. V 3 t. T. 2. Zakony porazheniya. Prochnost’ i dinamika sooruzheniy [Encyclopedia of safety: construction, industry, ecology. In 3 vol. Vol. 2. Destruction law. Resistibility and dynamics of structures]. Moscow, Nauka Publ., 2008. 632 p.

[13] Kotlyarevskiy V.A., Larionov V.I., Sushchev S.P. Entsiklopediya bezopasnosti: stroitel’stvo, promyshlennost’, ekologiya. V 3 t. T. 3. Seysmostoykost’ i teplozashchita sooruzheniy [Encyclopedia of safety: construction, industry, ecology. In 3 vol. Vol. 3. Seismic stability and thermal protection facilities]. Moscow, Nauka Publ., 2010. 633 p.

[14] Larionov V.I. Nauchno-metodicheskie osnovy opredeleniya riskov chrezvychaynykh situatsiy [Scientific and methodological basis for risk determining of emergencies]. In book: Vorob’ev Yu.L., Laverov N.P., Frolov K.V Bezopasnost’ Rossii. Analiz riska i problem bezopasnosti. V 4 ch. Ch. I. Osnovy analiza i regulirovaniya bezopasnosti [Security of Russia. Analysis of the risk and security problems. In 4 parts. Part. I. Fundamentals of analysis and regulation for security]. Moscow, Znanie Publ., 2006, 640 p. (cited pp. 353-389).