Mechanisms of Military and Technological Programs Expert Assessment

The paper shows that the success of the military-technological program (MTP) is largely dependent on its assessment mechanisms operating both at the program development stage, and at the program implementation stage. The study briefly describes basic mechanisms used in assessment of the MTP development and gives a detailed analysis of the MTP expert mechanisms. In our research we developed the MTP variants characterized by the requirement of non-manipulability, reflecting the interest of the governing bodies in having reliable and objective information. Findings of the research show that the problem of correct organization of the MTP examination is effectively solved within the framework of the active systems theory. In this case, the Centre organizes the MTP examination in order to obtain the most accurate and objective assessment, and experts being active elements of the examination process may choose a strategy of their own behavior so that the final expert assessment would be the most appropriate to their interests. We formalized the experts' basic functions and objectives, as well as the conditions which if fulfilled lead to determining the resulting assessment, reflecting the experts' shared opinion. This could be done in the case of Nash equilibrium and according to reliable evaluation of experts findings. The study proved that the resultant expert assessment of any expert coincides with their true MTP assessment. The expert's own opinion on the program project does not play any role in determining their rating. The study shows that it is reasonable for the Centre to choose the strategy, so that MPT examination takes into consideration two extreme situations in the expert's behavior - the desire to defend their views and not to lower their rating.

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